The world is of fluctuating probabilities, under continual adjustment as new evidence comes to light, captures the way the world works in realms like medicine, where a physician makes a preliminary diagnosis based on symptoms and probabilities, then orders tests, and then refines the diagnosis based on the test results and a new set of probabilities..
The world of fluctuating probabilities, under continual adjustment as new evidence comes to light, captures the way the world works in realms like medicine, where a physician makes a preliminary diagnosis based on symptoms and probabilities, then orders tests, and then refines the diagnosis based on the test results and a new set of probabilities.
Great Courses Plus - is Purchase What Are The Chances - Probability Made Clear courses at here with PRICE $169.95 $38 Great Courses Plus - What Are The Chances - Probability Made Clear What Are the Chances?.
Purchase Great Courses Plus - What Are The Chances - Probability Made Clear courses at here with PRICE $169.95 $38 Great Courses Plus - What Are The Chances - Probability Made Clear What Are the Chances?
Probability Made Clear is helps you understand the random factors that lurk behind almost everything—from the chance combinations of genes that produced you to the high odds that the waiting time at a bus stop will be longer than the average time between buses if they operate on a random schedule..
Probability Made Clear helps you understand the random factors that lurk behind almost everything—from the chance combinations of genes that produced you to the high odds that the waiting time at a bus stop will be longer than the average time between buses if they operate on a random schedule.
12 stimulating half-hour lectures, is In you will explore the fundamental concepts and fascinating applications of probability..
In 12 stimulating half-hour lectures, you will explore the fundamental concepts and fascinating applications of probability.
High Probability is You Will Enjoy This Course Professor Michael Starbird knows the secret of making numbers come alive to non-mathematicians: he picks intriguing, useful, and entertaining examples..
High Probability You Will Enjoy This Course Professor Michael Starbird knows the secret of making numbers come alive to non-mathematicians: he picks intriguing, useful, and entertaining examples.
Here is are some that you will explore in your investigation of probability as a reasoning tool: When did the most recent common ancestor of all humans live?.
Here are some that you will explore in your investigation of probability as a reasoning tool: When did the most recent common ancestor of all humans live?
probabilistic methods is Applying to the observed mutation rate of human genetic material, scientists have traced our lineage to a female ancestor who lived about 150,000 years ago..
Applying probabilistic methods to the observed mutation rate of human genetic material, scientists have traced our lineage to a female ancestor who lived about 150,000 years ago.
a stock option? is How much should you pay for.
How much should you pay for a stock option?
Options trading is used to be tantamount to gambling until about 1970, when two economists, Fischer Black and Myron Scholes, found a method to quantify those risks and to create a rational model for options pricing..
Options trading used to be tantamount to gambling until about 1970, when two economists, Fischer Black and Myron Scholes, found a method to quantify those risks and to create a rational model for options pricing.
you is What do do on third down with long yardage?.
What do you do on third down with long yardage?
football, is In a pass is the obvious play on third down with many yards to go..
In football, a pass is the obvious play on third down with many yards to go.
the other team is Of course, knows that..
Of course, the other team knows that.
Probability and game theory help is decide when to run with the ball to keep your opponent guessing..
Probability and game theory help decide when to run with the ball to keep your opponent guessing.
You is What Will Learn The course literally begins with a roll of the dice, as Professor Starbird demonstrates that games of chance perfectly illustrate the basic principles of probability, including the importance of counting all possible outcomes of any random event..
What You Will Learn The course literally begins with a roll of the dice, as Professor Starbird demonstrates that games of chance perfectly illustrate the basic principles of probability, including the importance of counting all possible outcomes of any random event.
Lecture 2, is In you probe the nature of randomness, which is famously symbolized by monkeys randomly hitting typewriter keys and creating Hamlet..
In Lecture 2, you probe the nature of randomness, which is famously symbolized by monkeys randomly hitting typewriter keys and creating Hamlet.
Lecture 3, is In you explore the concept of expected value, which is the average net loss or gain from performing an experiment or playing a game many times..
In Lecture 3, you explore the concept of expected value, which is the average net loss or gain from performing an experiment or playing a game many times.
Lecture 4, is Then in you investigate the simple but mathematically fertile idea of the random walk, which may seem like a mindless way of going nowhere but which has important applications in many fields..
Then in Lecture 4, you investigate the simple but mathematically fertile idea of the random walk, which may seem like a mindless way of going nowhere but which has important applications in many fields.
this introduction is After to the key concepts of probability, you delve into the wealth of applications..
After this introduction to the key concepts of probability, you delve into the wealth of applications.
Lectures 5 is and 6 show that randomness and probability are central components of modern scientific descriptions of the world in physics and biology..
Lectures 5 and 6 show that randomness and probability are central components of modern scientific descriptions of the world in physics and biology.
7 looks is Lecture into the world of finance, particularly probabilistic models of stock and option behavior..
Lecture 7 looks into the world of finance, particularly probabilistic models of stock and option behavior.
unusual applications, is Lecture 8 examines including game theory, which is the study of strategic decision-making in games, wars, business, and other areas..
Lecture 8 examines unusual applications, including game theory, which is the study of strategic decision-making in games, wars, business, and other areas.
Lecture 9 is Then in you consider two famous probability puzzles guaranteed to cause a stir: the birthday problem and the Let's Make a Deal® Monty Hall question..
Then in Lecture 9 you consider two famous probability puzzles guaranteed to cause a stir: the birthday problem and the Let's Make a Deal® Monty Hall question.
Lectures 10-12 is Finally, cover increasingly sophisticated and surprising results of probabilistic reasoning associated with Bayes theorem..
Finally, Lectures 10-12 cover increasingly sophisticated and surprising results of probabilistic reasoning associated with Bayes theorem.
The course is concludes with probability paradoxes..
The course concludes with probability paradoxes.
the Weather Forecasting Challenge One is Take of the most familiar experiences of probability that we have on a daily basis is the weather report, with predictions like, "There is a 30 percent chance of rain tomorrow." But what does that mean?.
Take the Weather Forecasting Challenge One of the most familiar experiences of probability that we have on a daily basis is the weather report, with predictions like, "There is a 30 percent chance of rain tomorrow." But what does that mean?
you is What do think?.
What do you think?
(a) Rain is Choose one: will occur 30 percent of the day..
Choose one: (a) Rain will occur 30 percent of the day.
(b) At is a specific point in the forecast area, for example, your house, there is a 30 percent chance of rain occurring..
(b) At a specific point in the forecast area, for example, your house, there is a 30 percent chance of rain occurring.
a 30 percent chance is (c) There is that rain will occur somewhere in the forecast area during the day..
(c) There is a 30 percent chance that rain will occur somewhere in the forecast area during the day.
(d) 30 percent of the forecast area is will receive rain, and 70 percent will not..
(d) 30 percent of the forecast area will receive rain, and 70 percent will not.
Lecture 5, is In Dr. Starbird puts this particular forecast under the microscope to demonstrate that probabilistic statements have very precise meanings that can easily be misinterpreted—or misstated..
In Lecture 5, Dr. Starbird puts this particular forecast under the microscope to demonstrate that probabilistic statements have very precise meanings that can easily be misinterpreted—or misstated.
He is explains why the answer is (e) and not one of the other choices..
He explains why the answer is (e) and not one of the other choices.
He is also explains why the official definition from the National Weather Service is subtly but decidedly wrong..
He also explains why the official definition from the National Weather Service is subtly but decidedly wrong.
He is even wagers that within five years the phrasing of the official definition will change because somebody at the National Weather Service will hear this lecture!.
He even wagers that within five years the phrasing of the official definition will change because somebody at the National Weather Service will hear this lecture!
Games People Play is The formal study of probability was born at the dice table..
Games People Play The formal study of probability was born at the dice table.
instructive examples of the principles is Gambling continues to provide of chance and probability, including: Gambler's ruin: A random walk is a sequence of steps in which the direction of each step is taken at random..
Gambling continues to provide instructive examples of the principles of chance and probability, including: Gambler's ruin: A random walk is a sequence of steps in which the direction of each step is taken at random.
the phenomenon is In gambling, assures that a bettor who repeatedly plays the same game with even odds will eventually—and invariably—go broke..
In gambling, the phenomenon assures that a bettor who repeatedly plays the same game with even odds will eventually—and invariably—go broke.
St. Petersburg paradox: is St. Petersburg paradox: A famous problem in probability involves a hypothetical game supposedly played at a casino in St. Petersburg..
St. Petersburg paradox: A famous problem in probability involves a hypothetical game supposedly played at a casino in St. Petersburg.
the gambler, is Though simple and apparently moderately profitable for the expected value of the game is infinite!.
Though simple and apparently moderately profitable for the gambler, the expected value of the game is infinite!
reasonable person is Yet no would pay very much to play it..
Yet no reasonable person would pay very much to play it.
Gambler's addiction: is Randomness plays a valuable role in reinforcing animal behavior..
Gambler's addiction: Randomness plays a valuable role in reinforcing animal behavior.
the reinforcement is Changing in an unpredictable, random way leads to behaviors that are retained for a long time, even in the absence of rewards..
Changing the reinforcement in an unpredictable, random way leads to behaviors that are retained for a long time, even in the absence of rewards.
humans, is Applied to this observation may help explain the compulsiveness of some gamblers..
Applied to humans, this observation may help explain the compulsiveness of some gamblers.
Probability is to the Rescue One approach to probability, developed by mathematician and Presbyterian minister Thomas Bayes in the 18th century, interprets probability in terms of degrees of belief..
Probability to the Rescue One approach to probability, developed by mathematician and Presbyterian minister Thomas Bayes in the 18th century, interprets probability in terms of degrees of belief.
new information is As becomes available, the calculation of probability changes to take account of the new data..
As new information becomes available, the calculation of probability changes to take account of the new data.
The Bayesian view is reflects the reality that we adjust our confidence in our knowledge as we gain evidence..
The Bayesian view reflects the reality that we adjust our confidence in our knowledge as we gain evidence.
Great Courses Plus - is Get What Are The Chances - Probability Made Clear download The world of fluctuating probabilities, under continual adjustment as new evidence comes to light, captures the way the world works in realms like medicine, where a physician makes a preliminary diagnosis based on symptoms and probabilities, then orders tests, and then refines the diagnosis based on the test results and a new set of probabilities..
Get Great Courses Plus - What Are The Chances - Probability Made Clear download The world of fluctuating probabilities, under continual adjustment as new evidence comes to light, captures the way the world works in realms like medicine, where a physician makes a preliminary diagnosis based on symptoms and probabilities, then orders tests, and then refines the diagnosis based on the test results and a new set of probabilities.
you is If think about it, it's also the way you work when you're on a jury..
If you think about it, it's also the way you work when you're on a jury.
the outset, is At you have a vague impression of the likelihood of guilt or innocence of the defendant..
At the outset, you have a vague impression of the likelihood of guilt or innocence of the defendant.
evidence is As mounts, you adjust the relative probabilities you assign to each of these verdicts..
As evidence mounts, you adjust the relative probabilities you assign to each of these verdicts.
You is may not do a formal calculation, but your informal procedure is nonetheless Bayesian..
You may not do a formal calculation, but your informal procedure is nonetheless Bayesian.
Randomness is is all around us..
Randomness is all around us.
most parts of is "Many or our lives involve situations where we don't know what's going to happen,"; says Professor Starbird..
"Many or most parts of our lives involve situations where we don't know what's going to happen,"; says Professor Starbird.
Probability is comes to the rescue to describe what we should expect from randomness..
Probability comes to the rescue to describe what we should expect from randomness.
It is is a powerful tool for dispelling illusions and uncertainty to help us understand the true odds when we roll the dice in the game of life..
It is a powerful tool for dispelling illusions and uncertainty to help us understand the true odds when we roll the dice in the game of life.
12 lectures | Average 30 minutes is each 1Our Random World—Probability Defined 2The Nature of Randomness 3Expected Value—You Can Bet on It 4Random Thoughts on Random Walks 5Probability Phenomena of Physics 6Probability Is in Our Genes 7Options and Our Financial Future.
12 lectures | Average 30 minutes each 1Our Random World—Probability Defined 2The Nature of Randomness 3Expected Value—You Can Bet on It 4Random Thoughts on Random Walks 5Probability Phenomena of Physics 6Probability Is in Our Genes 7Options and Our Financial Future
the expected behavior of a stock in the future is By characterizing and describing a probability distribution of its likely future price, mathematicians can quantify sophisticated risks in options contracts..
By characterizing the expected behavior of a stock in the future and describing a probability distribution of its likely future price, mathematicians can quantify sophisticated risks in options contracts.
the practice is However, can be a very dangerous game..
However, the practice can be a very dangerous game.
8Probability Where is We Don't Expect It 9Probability Surprises 10Conundrums of Conditional Probability 11Believe It or Not—Bayesian Probability 12Probability Everywhere Purchase Great Courses Plus - What Are The Chances - Probability Made Clear courses at here with PRICE $169.95 $38.
8Probability Where We Don't Expect It 9Probability Surprises 10Conundrums of Conditional Probability 11Believe It or Not—Bayesian Probability 12Probability Everywhere Purchase Great Courses Plus - What Are The Chances - Probability Made Clear courses at here with PRICE $169.95 $38
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